Description: In this session 35TS of the 2004 Valuation Actuary Symposium, the instructor provides simple tools and guidelines to better ensure that correct conclusions are drawn. This material is presented without the use of complex mathematical formulas. Topics include appropriateness of the assumption of normality including discussion of the distribution of a conditional tail expectation, drawing inferences about population means and tail percentiles, and uses and pitfalls of linear regression analysis.

Description: 2003 Valuation Actuary Symposium, San Diego, CA. In this Teaching Session the instructor discussed the importance of making sure the correct inferences were drawn from stochastic testing exercises. Topics included: 1. Applying the assumption of a normal distribution. 2. Drawing inferences about, and creating confidence intervals around, a population mean. 3. Drawing inferences about, and creating confidence intervals around, tail percentiles. 4. Certifying anticipated mortality under XXX in a mathematically concise way.

Description: This presentation is a panel discussion, session 56PD, from the 2004 Spring Meeting of the Society of Actuaries, held June 14-15 in San Antonio, TX. Tail risk, long recognized as important to insurance organizations, is being evaluated in a new light, with new approaches. The panelists review various approaches for measuring tail risk and how to price for tail risk using capital-market consistent techniques. From the Record of Society of Actuaries, Volume 30, No. 2.

Description: Presenter, an actuary with an advanced degree in statistics, provides some simple tools and guidelines – without complex formulas – about the distribution of a conditional tail expectation, how to draw correct inferences from the results of stochastic testing, and the uses and pitfalls of linear regression analyses. Session 24TS of the 2005 Valuation Actuary Symposium.

Description: In session 40PD of the 2004 Valuation Actuary Symposium, panelists discuss theories and assumptions underlying scenario generators, evaluating appropriateness of generated scenarios, choosing suitable economic scenario generators and use of representative scenarios.

Description: From a teaching session at the 2000 Valuation Actuary Symposium held in Washington DC, September 14-15, 2000 Discussion of realistic liability models for use in asset adequacy analysis, asset/liability management, pricing/repricing, financial reporting, or other purposes.

Description: This presentation is a Teaching Session, number 46TS, from the 2002 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held September 19-20 in Lake Buena Vista, FL. In this session, the instructor discusses simple tools and guidelines to ensure that correct inferences are drawn. The material is presented without using complex mathematical formulas. Topics include application of a normal distribution—when it is appropriate and when it is not, drawing inferences about and creating confidence intervals around tail percentile, and Monte Carlo Simulations for Regulation XXX.